The Open Philanthropy Project awarded a grant of $500,000 to Professor Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania to support his work on forecasting.
It is our impression that Professor Tetlock is among the leading researchers working on improving methods used for forecasting. Several Open Philanthropy Project staff members follow his research on expert judgment and geopolitical forecasting and, based on this familiarity with his work, we believe that he has a compelling track record in this area.
Professor Tetlock wrapped up a previous project, the Good Judgment Project, in the middle of last year. Subsequently, we learned that he was seeking funding for two new projects, currently called “Adversarial Collaboration Tournaments” and the “Alpha Pundit Challenge.” Professor Tetlock believes that these projects might contribute to making forecasting a more prominent component of policy discussions and debates; he describes the projects’ goal as depolarizing unnecessarily polarized debates.